European steel buyers are increasingly turning to Indonesia to fill supply gaps caused by the European Commission’s updated import safeguard measures and new antidumping duties.
Recent changes, implemented on April 1, have further limited non-EU sourcing options. Purchasing managers across Europe report that newly introduced antidumping duties on hot rolled coil (HRC) imports from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam have made procurement more challenging. As a result, Indonesia—currently exempt from both quotas and extra duties under EU rules—has emerged as a key alternative.
Indonesian Steel Imports Surge
In 2024, shipments of Indonesian-origin “non-alloy and other alloy hot rolled sheets and strips” to the EU surged 76.1% year-on-year to over 400,000 tonnes. That figure is expected to climb further following the country’s continued exemption status in the EU’s revised trade measures.
In the Speaking of Steel podcast, MEPS steel analyst Chris Jackson highlighted Indonesia’s growing role: “Earlier this year, it was clear buyers were actively searching for new sources. Indonesia kept coming up, and now we’re seeing that materialize with increased shipments to Europe.”
Indonesia’s economic growth is also fueling its steel industry. According to OECD forecasts, the country is set to post the world’s second-highest GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, at 4.9% and 5% respectively—second only to India. Between 2016 and 2024, Indonesia’s crude steel output jumped from 4.75 million tonnes to an estimated 17 million tonnes. Much of that capacity is still underutilized, pushing mills to pursue export opportunities.
European buyers report that Indonesian HRC, certified with CE markings and 3.1 inspection documentation, is particularly popular among tubemakers and producers of hollow sections. Deals for June shipments to Southern Europe and Gdansk, Poland, have recently been concluded. Buyers are also eyeing supply from Malaysia and Thailand, two other nations exempt from EU duties.
Tougher Quotas and New Duties Reshape Market
Steel exporters that previously relied heavily on the EU market now face tightened restrictions. As of April 1, countries that exhaust their country-specific quotas will no longer be able to access the EU’s residual quota pool in Q4. Additionally, the annual quota growth rate will be slashed from 1% to just 0.1% starting in July.
The cap for individual countries under the “other countries” hot rolled coil quota has also been reduced from 15% to 13%, increasing the likelihood of overage duties.
Provisional antidumping duties were also introduced on specific HRC imports:
- Egypt: All producers face a 12.8% duty.
- Vietnam: Most face a 12.1% duty, though Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Company was exempted.
- Japan: Tokyo Steel received a 6.9% duty, JFE Steel and Daido Steel face 31.1%, and Nippon Steel along with others were hit with a 31.8% rate.
Price Gap Widens Between Domestic and Foreign Steel
In response to the new trade measures, European mills have raised their prices. ArcelorMittal increased its HRC list price to €680 per tonne in Southern Europe and €700 in Northern Europe, with other producers following suit. Mills are also limiting spot market availability to exert upward pressure on prices.
However, the widening price gap between domestic steel and more competitively priced material from exempt countries like Indonesia is becoming increasingly apparent. For European service centers, this lower-cost supply offers some relief, especially as they struggle to pass on recent price hikes to end customers.
