In January 2025, Australian coking coal exports experienced a sharp decline, falling by 23% to 11.33 million tons from 14.73 million tons in December 2024. This decrease was attributed to limited supply from major producers towards the end of 2024, weak demand, and shifts in trade flows. However, year-on-year, exports increased by 5%.
Exports to major importers India and China saw significant reductions. Shipments to India dropped by 23% month-on-month, falling to 2.52 million tons, while deliveries to China plunged by 53%, totaling just 0.84 million tons. Shipments to Japan also declined by 47%, reaching 1.94 million tons. On the other hand, South Korea showed an exception, increasing imports by 25% month-on-month to 1.78 million tons.
This decline in exports was mirrored in the performance of key Australian ports. Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) saw a 14% drop in shipments, while Gladstone Port’s shipments fell by 13%. Hay Point and Abbot Point ports experienced even more significant decreases of 41% and 31%, respectively. Kembla and Newcastle ports reduced their shipments by 26% and 18%, respectively.
The average price of Australian coking coal also saw a decrease of $7 per ton month-on-month, dropping to $193 per ton FOB. This decline was driven by weaker steel demand and cautious behavior from major importers.
Despite these short-term challenges, long-term demand for Australian coking coal remains stable. Analysts anticipate a potential recovery in exports in the coming months, influenced by trends in the steel industry, trade policies, and possible supply disruptions from competing suppliers.
In its December review, Fitch Ratings raised its iron ore price forecast for 2024 to $110 per ton but maintained its expectations for coking coal prices. The price of coking coal is projected to reach $190 per ton in 2025 and $170 per ton in 2026.
