According to an annual survey by Headwall Partners, a leading independent investment banking firm specializing in the metals and mining industry, most steel industry executives in North America predict that hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices will fall between $600 and $800 per short tonne in 2025. This price range was cited by 56% of survey respondents. For context, the average ex-works price for hot-rolled coils last year was $773 per short tonne.
Additionally, the majority of respondents are optimistic about the future of steel demand in North America, with a strong belief that overall demand will rise over the next 3-5 years. Specifically, 76% expect moderate growth, while 11% foresee significant growth.
The survey also revealed that 69% of those in the steel and metals industry are either optimistic or very optimistic about their company’s financial outlook in the next three years compared to the previous three. However, they identified labor availability, inflation, and potential tariffs proposed by the Trump administration as the biggest risks to their financial performance.
In terms of decarbonization, more than half of the respondents (54%) do not anticipate making investments to reduce carbon emissions within the next five years. This is particularly true among service centers, as noted by Headwall Partners.
In recent developments, HRC prices in the U.S. have already surpassed the projected range. Nucor, for instance, has raised its spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil five times this year, with the base price set at $860 per short tonne as of February 24. Prices for California Steel Industries (CSI) are even higher, reaching $920 per tonne. Other producers, such as Cleveland-Cliffs, have also increased their prices, with the April contract for HRC supplies set at $900 per tonne. NLMK USA, in turn, is targeting $900 per tonne for hot-rolled steel and $1,100 per tonne for coated cold-rolled steel.
